Advance Automobile Parts (AAP) Down 8.2% Given that Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a thirty day period due to the fact the final earnings report for Advance Auto Components (AAP). Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time body, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the current negative pattern proceed foremost up to its following earnings release, or is Advance Car Parts thanks for a breakout? Before we dive into how traders and analysts have reacted as of late, let us consider a swift appear at the most recent earnings report in purchase to get a much better tackle on the vital drivers.

Progress Auto Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates, Trims Income & FCF View

Advance Auto noted adjusted earnings of $2.84 for each share for third-quarter 2022 (finished Oct 8, 2022), down 11.5% from the 12 months-ago quarter figure. The described figure also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.32 a share. Advance Auto generated net revenues of $2,641.3 million, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,652 million and inching down .8% from the 12 months-ago documented determine.

Comparable similar-keep declined .7%. Altered working cash flow was down 5.8% 12 months above year to $258 million. Adjusted SG&A costs totaled $989.3 million for 3rd-quarter 2022, up 5.4% 12 months over calendar year.

Economical Situation

Advance Auto had funds and income equivalents of $191.2 million as of Oct 8, 2022 when compared with $601.4 million on Jan 1, 2022. Total prolonged-expression personal debt was $1,187.9 million as of Oct 8, 2022, up from $1,034.3 million on Jan 1, 2022. 12 months to day, internet income supplied by working activities and FCF totaled $483.1 million $149.5 million, respectively.

Dividend & Share Repurchase

AAP’s board declared a dollars dividend of $1.50 a share, which would be paid out out on Jan 3, 2023 to all common shareholders of document as of Dec 16, 2022.

During the quarter less than dialogue, AAP repurchased all around .4 million shares for $75 million at an normal rate of $168.93 for each share. At the stop of third-quarter 2022, AAP had $ 1 billion remaining beneath its share repurchase application.

Retailer Update

As of Oct 8, 2022, AAP operated 4,747 outlets and 313 Worldpac branches in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. It also served 1,335 independently-owned Carquest-branded stores throughout these destinations, in addition to Mexico and many Caribbean Islands.

2022 Direction

Progress Auto estimates 2022 internet revenue in the band of $11-$11.2 billion. Equivalent keep gross sales are now envisioned to drop up to 1% as towards the prior forecast of 1-3% progress. Modified working cash flow margin is envisioned in the vary of 9.8-10%. Advance Car expects 2022 capex to be a minimum of $350 million. The business now targets an FCF of a minimum of $300 million, down from $700 million believed earlier. Altered EPS is now forecast involving $12.60 and $12.80, down from the beforehand guided assortment of $12.75-$13.25. The automobile components retailer now intends to buy back a highest of $600 million value of shares in 2022. It aims to open up 125-150 new outlets this yr.

How Have Estimates Been Relocating Considering that Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward through the previous thirty day period.

VGM Scores

At present, Progress Automobile Elements has a subpar Growth Score of D, a quality with the identical rating on the momentum entrance. Nevertheless, the stock was allotted a grade of A on the benefit aspect, putting it in the best quintile for this expense system.

In general, the stock has an mixture VGM Rating of C. If you usually are not targeted on a single strategy, this rating is the just one you ought to be intrigued in.


Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the inventory, and the magnitude of these revisions seems promising. Notably, Progress Car Pieces has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We be expecting an in-line return from the inventory in the future handful of months.

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